On June 11, 2024, Ivor Chipkin, Co-Founder and Director of the New South Institute, offered an insightful interview on NewsCentralTV, a prominent Nigerian news channel. In this compelling discussion, Chipkin shared his analysis of South Africa’s recent political developments following the ANC’s loss of its majority in the general elections.

Chipkin began by highlighting the historic electoral defeat of the African National Congress (ANC), which saw its support drop dramatically from 57% in 2019 to below 40%. He praised President Ramaphosa for his gracious acceptance of the election results, recognizing the significance of upholding the principles of South Africa’s democracy and constitutional framework.

The conversation then delved into the unprecedented shift in South Africa’s political landscape. With no party able to form a government on its own, the country is entering a new phase of coalition politics. Chipkin emphasized the uncertainty and anxiety surrounding the formation and stability of these coalitions, drawing attention to the instability experienced in local government coalitions over the past five years.

Exploring potential coalition scenarios, Chipkin discussed the ideological differences between the major parties. He examined the liberal democratic stance of the Democratic Alliance (DA) in contrast to the populist nationalism of the MK Party and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). He introduced the concept of “illiberal liberalism” to describe President Ramaphosa’s approach of supporting market economy reforms while tolerating elements within the ANC that are ambivalent towards the constitutional framework.

Chipkin stressed the importance of protecting South Africa’s democratic constitution. He expressed concern over the potential sacrifice of accountability in coalition negotiations, particularly regarding corruption issues within the ANC and other parties. He argued that the protection and deepening of South Africa’s democratic gains are crucial for the country’s future.

The interview also covered pressing issues such as unemployment, poverty, insecurity, and the power crisis in South Africa. Chipkin emphasized the need for effective solutions to these challenges, highlighting the different priorities of political parties in addressing these issues.

When asked for his predictions, Chipkin suggested that a coalition between the ANC and the DA, framed as a government of national unity, is the most likely outcome. He advocated for alliances that protect the constitution and support economic growth, while also expressing hope for the emergence of a labor party that is committed to reducing inequality and supporting market economics.

For those interested in a deeper understanding of these political dynamics and their implications, we invite you to watch the full interview on NewsCentralTV. Chipkin’s analysis provides valuable insights into South Africa’s evolving political situation. For more updates and analyses, follow our work at the New South Institute.